The Wal-Martization of Stockton: Are three Wal-Marts good for the city?

This summer, Stockton will celebrate the opening of a Super Wal-Mart in Spanos Park West. The store will be the city’s second Super Wal-Mart, the first on Hammer Lane near Highway 99. In Weston Ranch, there remain plans to include a Wal-Mart to anchor the planned Weston Ranch Towne Center project just off of Interstate 5. At one time, Wal-Mart was considering the construction of seven stores in the city. We do know for sure that Stockton will have three Wal-Marts in the near future.

Near by stores such as Target and Petsmart stand to lose business to the Super Wal-Mart opening up across the street in Spanos Park West

What can Stockton expect from three Wal-Marts? There are two very vocal sides when it comes to debating the pros and cons of the giant retailer. Advocates of the stores tout increased tax revenues, jobs and cheaper goods that all are supposed to come with a Wal-Mart. On the other hand, opponents argue that the presence of Wal-Mart brings higher crime rates, lower property values and drives other stores out of business. For the common bystander trying to form an opinion on the subject, it can be difficult to cut through the rhetoric to see exactly how a Wal-Mart could benefit or detract from your community. In Stockton, we are faced with the prospect of three Wal-Marts, so it is important to understand how these stores can affect neighborhoods and the city as a whole. This article attempts to provide real insight into the effects these Wal-Marts will have by presenting research done across the country on how Wal-Mart has changed other communities.

Wal-Mart touts its stores as huge job creators. On the surface, this is true: Wal-Mart is huge and needs a lot of people to run it. In Weston Ranch, Wal-Mart officials claim the store will create 350 jobs. The Super Wal-Mart on Hammer hired about 800 and the store in Spanos Park West will hire a similar number. In a city with an unemployment rate hovering around 15%, any jobs should be welcome.

But despite these huge job numbers, several studies show the presence of a Wal-Mart does not create more jobs over time, with some studies suggesting that Wal-Mart actually depletes jobs in the long run.

A 2009 study on the opening of a Chicago Wal-Mart found that businesses located in close proximity to the store had a significantly higher probability of going out of business than those located in other parts of the city. The researchers found that while Wal-Mart directly hired workers, the eventual closing of other businesses and the resulting job losses created a zero-sum effect. For all the jobs generated by Wal-Mart, the stores that closed around it negated those gains.

Of course, this is just a case study. However, other research has reached similar conclusions. Research done by David Neumark in 2007 looking at county-level retail found that each Wal-Mart worker hired essentially replaced 1.4 retail workers elsewhere in the region. The analysis found that while Wal-Mart does hire a substantial amounts of workers, each store also leads to an average of 150 area workers eventually losing their jobs.

A Wal-Mart in Baltimore is the only tenant left at Port Covington

Some analysis shows that retailers near Wal-Mart that are not in the same retail market can see increases in business due to increased traffic. Good news for antique stores, bad news for Target, Kohls, Petsmart, and Lowes.

Obviously, crime is an issue in Stockton. Wal-Mart detractors claim with Wal-Mart comes more crime. Anecdotally, it is hard to argue against this. There have been plenty of case studies of small towns being overrun by service calls needed at the local Wal-Mart. One town in Pennsylvania saw misdemeanor crime jump 55% in the two years after its Wal-Mart opened.

Without doing a proper regression analysis (I don’t think one analyzing the link between Wal-Mart and crime exists. If I am wrong please correct me), we can’t say for sure that Wal-Mart causes increases in crime rates (though there has been a recent study done linking the presence of hate groups to Wal-Mart stores). However, the qualitative evidence is pretty difficult to ignore.

Since the start of May of this year, there have been roughly 40 reported crimes at Hammer Lane Wal-Mart in Stockton, according to, a site the geocodes police service calls. A quick comparison of other areas of the city finds that this block of Hammer lane has garnered the most police attention of any address in Stockton. Some observers may see this as evidence that additional Wal-Marts will strain the already taxed police department.

In a city as starved for cash as Stockton, opening a Wal-Mart that rakes in millions in sales doesn’t sound like such a bad idea. According to Wal-Mart, the Hammer Lane store brought in $2,150,000 in sales tax revenue in 2006. Take that times three, and Stockton’s money woes are solved!

Unfortunately, tax revenue is not created out of thin air. For every dollar someone in Stockton spends at a new Wal-Mart, a dollar that person would have spent at another Stockton store disappears. Whether that store would have been a mom and pop shop or a Target makes little difference in terms of tax revenue as all Wal-Mart has done is shift sales from one store to another. As you can imagine, there have been studies done that prove this theory. In Mississippi, researcher Kenneth Stone found that for every dollar spent at Wal-Mart, there was a corresponding loss for businesses in host counties.

Furthermore, building big box stores, such as Wal-Mart, are proven to be a less efficient means of collecting tax revenue, as discussed here in a previous blog post. Per acre, it makes more sense to invest in more dense retail and commercial property in older, established areas, such as downtown.

Property values
Opponents will sometimes make the argument that the presence of a Wal-Mart will bring down property values. Stockton suffers from a depressed real estate market, and adding Wal-Marts will do nothing to bring the values of our homes up. To the naked eye, it makes sense that most people don’t want to pay more to live near a giant, 24 hour retailer. However, most research shows no strong relationship between property values and Wal-Mart.

In New Jersey, a study of the effect of 30 Wal-Marts on property values showed no correlation. Some research actually suggests that a Wal-Mart could increase property values. A recent report released by the National Bureau of Economic Research concluded that homes within a half mile of a Wal-Mart saw an increase in home values from 2% to 3%.

If Wal-Mart does one thing right, it’s driving down prices. Randall Crane of UCLA found that Wal-Mart could potentially save shoppers millions per year in grocery savings once the store becomes a dominant grocery retailer. During these tough economic times, many may argue that Stocktonians could use some savings.

Admittedly, the literature on the effects of Wal-Mart is mountainous. Countless reports and books exist on the subject, and I don’t purport to have read them all. There remain numerous other areas to explore when considering the effects of a Wal-Mart, such as the effect on the environment, traffic, obesity rates and questionable business practices. However, what I have presented here should give you an idea of how the addition of more Wal-Marts will change Stockton. For our city, it is important to consider that Wal-Mart may actually cost the region jobs in the long run and will probably not bring in any new tax revenue that is not siphoned off from other stores.

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Categories: Community Commentary, Smart Growth

Author:David A. Garcia

David A. Garcia created SCL in March of 2012. Garcia is a Stockton native with a background in urban policy and planning, holding a Bachelor's Degree from UCLA as well as a Master's Degree in Public Policy from the Johns Hopkins Institute for Policy Studies. He currently serves as the Policy Director at the UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation. David was also COO at Ten Space, a real estate development firm focused exclusively on Downtown Stockton, and continues to advise on their projects. Prior to that, he worked three years as a researcher/analyst for a Congressional research agency in Washington, DC. The views expressed on this site are entirely of the author's

15 Comments on “The Wal-Martization of Stockton: Are three Wal-Marts good for the city?”

  1. Tiffany
    June 5, 2012 at 2:29 pm #

    Excellent post. More Walmarts in Stockton concern me. I read this blog regularly and was curious what you would think. Thank you for sharing!

  2. Stockton City Limits
    June 5, 2012 at 7:50 pm #

    Thanks for your patronage, Tiffany. I think my thoughts are pretty clear: Allowing more Wal-Marts in the city will not improve tax revenue and will be damaging to area businesses. While the city has passed a big-box ordinance banning stores over 100,000 square feet, this is not enough. The Weston Ranch store will be in compliance at just 99,000 square feet, but that does not mean we will not see the same detrimental effects from the larger stores.

  3. July 6, 2012 at 4:32 pm #

    Thorough, thoughtful, and well expressed. Thank you for your insight.

  4. Greg Vitz
    July 7, 2012 at 6:08 am #

    You have left out that there will be a Walmart grocery at March and West Ln. They bought the old vacant Food Max site. You could go to Winco (4 blocks east) S-mart (2 blocks south east) and Food 4 Less ( 6 bocks west) and see how they feel about four Walmarts. Lets see if they are all still open in 12 months. Also compare wages for workers, benefit packages, and possibly the crime. I would question that if crime goes up then usually property values go down.

  5. Stark
    July 9, 2012 at 8:58 am #

    I see doom. Sorry, not a good thing to say. I live in Spanos West and I can see now how bad the traffic would be. The Smart in Hammer by I5 already closed, go figure. Bet crime will be up. I shopped Walmart but it shouldnt be in the middle of a community. It will kill a lot of businesses here. Whats wrong with Stockton? 4 Walmarts? Also i noticed seems like every corner is either walgreens and CVS!! Every grocery store has Pharmacy! Couldnt we get enough of these pharmacies? Are we that drugged?

    • Maargaret
      July 13, 2012 at 11:11 am #

      I couldn’t agree with your comments more. What is going on with all these drug stores? What will be put in the SMart store at Hammer by I-5?

      • Stockton City Limits
        July 15, 2012 at 9:22 pm #


        Thanks for the comment. I wonder the same thing about the sudden abundance of CVS/Walgreen’s in the city, my guess is that it has to do with demographics and for whatever reason, Stockton is a good candidate for drug stores, according to these companies. I can’t say what the impacts are.

        As for the now defunct S-Mart, I not sure about that space either. Hopefully something is put in its place soon, that shopping center needs an anchor.

  6. Motecuzoma
    July 10, 2012 at 4:38 pm #

    Great analysis.

  7. Elizabeth Toscano
    December 1, 2012 at 6:22 pm #

    I’m so Happy to hear that a Wal-Mart is coming to Western Ranch because I get tired of driving across town!!! Walmart is my favorite store to shop at and it being in the Western Ranch area it will make a lot of money!! A lot of people who would like to see this project completed :)!

    • Elizabeth Toscano
      December 1, 2012 at 6:24 pm #

      A lot of people would like to see this project completed! Sorry for the error!

  8. boo
    June 25, 2013 at 3:38 pm #

    Walmart is bad for our city. We don’t need more employees under a bad employer. We need people employed in jobs where they can make a decent living for themselves, where they can actually afford healthcare! Walmart employees can barely afford basic necessities… they treat their workers like crap.


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