It’s not the recession’s fault: how the education gap in Stockton creates a structurally unsound economy

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics released employment data for July, and Stockton’s unemployment rate ticked up to 15.1%. Eight Central Valley cities rank in the bottom eleven out of 372 metro areas in the country for unemployment. But while the recession has taken away many construction, manufacturing and retail jobs, white collar positions for doctors, technology experts and nurses are still going unfilled, highlighting an underlying structural issue with the region’s workforce that threatens to keep bogging the local economy down even after the housing market recovers. While retail and construction jobs are sorely needed, attention must be paid to the need for a more skilled workforce, one that can fill the increasing demand for healthcare professionals.

The Brookings Institution recently released a report looking at the relationship between education and unemployment in terms of demand, and has provided some very intriguing information on the dynamics of the job market here in Stockton. Brookings wanted to find out how a gap in educational supply and demand is related to unemployment across different cities, and what they found shows that cities like Stockton need to beef up their education.

Brookings found that in the Central Valley, there is shortage of educated workers relative to demand. Essentially, there are jobs for people with college educations, but not enough college educated adults in the labor force to fill them. Brookings concludes that this gap between demand and supply is a big reason why unemployment is so high in the Central Valley. While the recession undoubtedly contributed to the high rate of unemployment, the city also suffers from an education gap that kept unemployment high even during the good times, and threatens to hold the city back even when the economy picks up again.

Contrary to what many may think, Stockton does have a lot of good, well paying positions, according to the data analyzed by Brookings. However, there are not enough people with the educational attainment to fill these positions. In January and February of 2012, 36% of all job openings required a bachelors degree or higher. However, the percentage of adults with a college education only comprise about 18% of the working population, and just 12% of the unemployed. What does this data mean? To put it simply, there are not enough educated workers in the Stockton region to meet the demand.

These numbers alone are a cause for concern, and the story becomes even more intriguing when we take a deeper look. The data compiled by Brookings indicates that we are specifically lacking health care professionals. Of all the job openings in the area for January and February of this year, by far the largest occupation was health diagnosing and treating practitioners (read: doctors and nurses), comprising 13% of total area job openings (1,463 jobs in total), more than double the next most available occupation (motor vehicle operator). The story is the same throughout the Central Valley as healthcare topped the list of most available occupation in Bakersfield, Fresno, and Modesto.

Source: The Brookings Institution

The good news is Stockton has a demand for educated workers. Bad news: our labor force does not have that education.

While white collar jobs seem to be in high supply, blue collar jobs are the ones that are tough to come by, and that is a problem as 50% of Stockton’s labor force has a high school diploma or less, while jobs requiring a high school diploma or less only made up 30% of job openings. The effect is that when Wal-Mart hires, throngs of Stocktonians submit their resumes for limited positions, while an opening for a nurse or health technician stays open for much longer.

What is the solution? More investment needs to be made in higher education, particularly in healthcare as the profession continues to expand in the region with the construction of the new prison health facility and the expansion of other area healthcare providers such as Dameron hospital. While healthcare continues to be an area of job growth, there is no medical school in the Central Valley (the closest is UC Davis).  It is great to hear that Stockton has a lot of good jobs, but it means nothing if the workforce is not prepared to fill these vacancies. This is a cause for concern on two fronts: first, if demand for doctors and nurses is not being met, there is a gap in employment that will continue to drag down the economy. Second, a lack of doctors is bad news for the rest of us, given the rapid growth in population and general poor health of valley residents. Already, there are only 87 doctors per 100,000 residents in the Central Valley.

The valley needs a medical school, there is no other way around it. I don’t know the first thing about starting a med school, but perhaps this is something UOP and the city can discuss, because the demand is definitely there, and the state university system appears ill equipped to deal with the problem due to its precarious financial situation. In Merced, a program developed jointly with UC Davis Medical School to bring medical students to the region for their rotations brought in around 150 applications last year. Five were admitted in 2011, six were admitted in 2012. UC Merced eventually plans to open its own medical school, though this appears to be very far into the future, given budget restrictions at the state level.

An investment in education is also good for insulating against future cyclical economic problems (i.e. recessions). Brookings notes that the cities that weathered the recession the best had the smallest education gaps. Furthermore, an increase in educated workers means more demand for goods and services, which in turn leads to a stronger economy overall. Research shows that college educated workers drive an increase in demand for goods and services, leading to higher levels of retail employment. Investing in education can provide tremendous returns for everyone.

In the long run, the housing market will recover, construction crews will find more work, and the unemployment rate will dip. However, our education gap is not cyclical, but structural. Even before the housing bust, the city had unreasonably high unemployment. Unless a shift is made to try and meet the demand for skilled workers, Stockton and other Central Valley cities will always have an unacceptably high unemployment rate, even in good times.

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Categories: Community Commentary

Author:David A. Garcia

David A. Garcia created SCL in March of 2012. Garcia is a Stockton native with a background in urban policy and planning, holding a Bachelor's Degree from UCLA as well as a Master's Degree in Public Policy from the Johns Hopkins Institute for Policy Studies. He currently serves as the Policy Director at the UC Berkeley Terner Center for Housing Innovation. David was also COO at Ten Space, a real estate development firm focused exclusively on Downtown Stockton, and continues to advise on their projects. Prior to that, he worked three years as a researcher/analyst for a Congressional research agency in Washington, DC. The views expressed on this site are entirely of the author's

3 Comments on “It’s not the recession’s fault: how the education gap in Stockton creates a structurally unsound economy”

  1. Bill Fuhs
    September 1, 2012 at 1:01 pm #

    Sorry, I beg to differ on your need for a med school. Great if a med school wants to open in Stockton, but we don’t need one. What we need is to rebuild…….. rebrand……. renew Stockton so the Doctors and everyone else will want to live here. We have the best farmland, waterways, people, historic areas and pleasant weather. We have rivers, mountains and an ocean within biking distance. We have it all, in world class quantities, except…………

    We also have the worst reputation of any American city on record. We can’t just clean up a little bit and get by–we need to totally remake Stockton! To glimpse what we could become, take a look at Portland, OR. Biking is the major draw for Portland, and is probably part of the reason that Forbes Magazine ranked them the Third Safest City in America. People commute in Portland because it is faster than driving!

    I am suggesting that “Stockton, the Biking Capital of the World”, become a reality. Any others interested in a Biking future for Stockton????

    • Stockton City Limits
      September 3, 2012 at 7:44 pm #

      Bill, While I agree that it is important to turn the city around to attract new residents, wouldn’t you agree that there should be opportunities given to those who already live here as well? If we attract doctors and new white collar businesses, that is great, but the majority of the labor force here won’t be able to work in those fields because the educational attainment is not there. While a med school is far fetched, partnering with institutions and providing education in other health oriented occupations is an attainable goal to give residents opportunities to advance in fields where good jobs are in demand.

      As for Portland, OR, it is a great city. Part of the reason the city is successful where other cities fail is that they have an Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) forcing growth inward, making travel by biking more attractive. If there is to be the same level of enthusiasm for biking here in Stockton as there is in Portland, our growth would like wise need to be channeled inward and coupled with a more comprehensive transportation plan.

  2. Tiffany
    September 20, 2012 at 5:26 pm #

    Thank you for posting this! This has been on my mind for a long while (since I moved back to Stockton in early 2011 from Phoenix- great medical care there!). I’ve needed to see a few doctors. Most doctors around here aren’t accepting medi-cal for new patients (which I had temporarily until I got on my job’s group plan). And when you REALLY need to be seen and offer to pay cash for the appointment, they refuse! They had good reason, which is if the patient needs labs or surgeries then they never pay up. First off, every lab I’ve been to has billed separately from the MD. And second, can I at least see a physician and get a diagnosis first before you jump to surgery conclusions?! It’s frustrating. Doctors have been put in a difficult situation here.

    I agree that Stockton needs to re-brand, but not as it relates to bringing more doctors/educational opportunities here. BOTH are needed. The educational opportunities around here are crap. And I’d also like to add that Californians (at least N. Californians), have some of the worst work ethics I’ve ever seen. All revolving around lazy, entitled employees.

    Also, about Dameron hospital, they have had the same pharmacy tech job posting up for MONTHS! I first saw it when I moved here in 2011 looking for work. It is still currently posted. I have all the qualifications they’re asking for, but my resume was still turned down, no interview. They had their educated health technician and they chose to pass it up.

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